As I sit down to analyze the 2023 San Jose State football schedule, I can't help but draw parallels to that incredible Hotshots game I watched last season where Zavier Lucero put up his typical stellar numbers - 24 points, eight rebounds, and five assists. That kind of consistent performance is exactly what we're hoping to see from our Spartans this coming season. Having followed SJSU football for over a decade now, I've learned that success often comes down to those key players who deliver week after week, much like Lucero does for the Hotshots. The 2023 schedule presents both challenges and opportunities that could define our season, and I'm particularly excited about several matchups that should tell us early whether this team has what it takes to compete at the highest level.
The season kicks off on September 2nd against Oregon State, and honestly, this opener makes me a bit nervous. Last year's opener showed us both the potential and the growing pains of this team, and facing a Power Five conference opponent right out of the gate will test our mettle immediately. What fascinates me about scheduling tough opponents early is how it reminds me of that surprising performance from 47-year-old Rafi Reavis coming off the bench for the Hotshots - sometimes the most unexpected players rise to the occasion when facing superior competition. I've seen SJSU pull off upsets before, particularly in those early season games where everyone counts them out. The key will be whether our offense can establish rhythm against what should be a stout Oregon State defense. If we can keep it close through three quarters, anything can happen in the fourth.
Looking through the schedule, the September 16th game against Toledo stands out to me as what I'm calling a "program indicator" game. These are the contests that reveal character more than anything else. Toledo returns nearly 80% of their offensive production from last season, which worries me, but our home field advantage at CEFCU Stadium could be the difference maker. I remember attending the 2021 game against UNLV where the energy from the student section literally willed the team to victory in overtime. That's the kind of atmosphere we need against Toledo - loud, relentless, and believing even when things look bleak. The numbers suggest this should be a close game, but my gut tells me our defense will need to create at least two turnovers to secure the win.
Conference play always brings its own special intensity, and the October 7th matchup against Boise State has become one of those rivalry games that genuinely matters. I'll admit I have a love-hate relationship with playing Boise - their blue turf still gives me nightmares from that 42-7 drubbing back in 2019, but there's no better feeling than beating them on their home field. The statistics from our last three meetings show we're closing the gap, with the average margin of defeat shrinking from 28 points to just 7 in last year's contest. This improvement trajectory gives me genuine hope that 2023 might be the year we break through. I'm particularly interested to see how our secondary handles their passing game, which ranked 24th nationally last season.
What really excites me about this schedule are those November games that could determine bowl eligibility. The November 11th contest against Utah State stands out because it falls during that crucial stretch where teams either elevate or collapse. Having watched SJSU football through multiple coaching regimes, I've noticed that successful seasons often hinge on winning at least two of three during this late-season push. The weather starts becoming a factor, injuries have accumulated, and depth charts get tested in ways they haven't been earlier in the season. It's during these games that you see which teams have built the necessary depth, much like how the Hotshots benefited from unexpected contributions from veteran players like Reavis when the starters needed rest.
The regular season finale against Fresno State on November 25th has all the makings of a classic. This rivalry means more than just conference standings - it's about bragging rights, recruiting advantages, and ending the season on a high note. I've attended the last six meetings between these teams, and the intensity never disappoints. Last year's 35-28 victory was particularly sweet, coming as it did after Fresno had won three straight in the series. The emotional lift from that win carried into offseason recruiting and generated momentum that I believe will pay dividends this year. My prediction? This game will come down to which team establishes the running game more effectively - the team that rushes for more yards has won this matchup 80% of the time over the past decade.
As I reflect on the complete schedule, what strikes me is the balanced distribution of home and away games, with those critical November contests mostly at CEFCU Stadium where our 12-3 home record over the past two seasons creates a genuine advantage. The schedule sets up nicely for a strong start, followed by a challenging mid-season stretch that will test our depth, before finishing with winnable home games. If this team can stay healthy - and that's always a big if in college football - I see a realistic path to 8 or even 9 wins. The development of our younger players during those early non-conference games will be crucial, much like how the Hotshots discovered valuable depth when they gave meaningful minutes to their veteran role players. This schedule provides both the tests and opportunities that could make 2023 a special season for Spartan football, and I for one can't wait to see how it unfolds.
